Executive Summary

Q3 FY2025 (quarter ended March 31, 2025): Neuphoria reported $15.00M in license revenue driven by a $15M Merck Phase 2 milestone; Net Income was $11.26M and Diluted EPS was $6.55 .
Versus Wall Street: Revenue beat the S&P Global consensus of $14.71M; EPS of $6.55 was modestly above the $6.44 consensus; EBITDA swung positive to $12.14M vs an estimated loss of -$4.13M, a significant surprise on milestone timing and mix (all estimates one analyst)*.
Guidance narrative: Press release reiterated AFFIRM-1 Phase 3 SAD topline in Q3 2025 and noted cash runway “into Q3 2026” , while the 10-Q stated runway “into the first quarter of fiscal 2027,” a longer runway reflecting the milestone inflow .
Near-term catalysts: AFFIRM-1 Phase 3 topline readout in Q3 2025 and progress on PTSD SYMPHONY planning; continued development of Merck-partnered MK‑1167 now in Phase 2 in Alzheimer’s .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

License revenue recognized from Merck: $15M milestone drove positive operating leverage and profitability in Q3 .
Clinical execution and timelines: “steady progress across our pipeline… AFFIRM‑1 Phase 3 study… topline data in Q3 this year,” CEO said, reinforcing confidence in BNC‑210’s profile .
Improved liquidity outlook: Management assessed no substantial doubt about going concern, citing cash and milestone receipt as sufficient “into the first quarter of fiscal year 2027” .

Reliance on partner-driven milestones: Revenue remains non-recurring and contingent on external program triggers (Merck, Carina), increasing quarter-to-quarter volatility .
Low external estimate coverage: Only one analyst contributed to Q3 EPS and revenue consensus, limiting visibility and increasing surprise risk*.
Capital needs remain a strategic risk: Company continues to highlight financing needs and potential dilution to fund development beyond existing runway .

Metric	Q3 2024	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026
Revenue ($)	$0	$15,000,000	$-13,267*	$0*
Net Income ($)	$(2,778,148)	$11,262,161	$(8,883,657)*	$(9,906,504)*
Diluted EPS ($)	$(2.83)	$6.55	$(4.67)*	$(4.41)*
Total Operating Expenses ($)	$2,394,031	$3,022,807	$5,822,880*	$5,652,689*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Delta
Revenue ($)	$14,714,669*	$15,000,000	+$285,331 (beat)
Primary EPS ($)	$6.44*	$6.55	+$0.11 (beat)
EBITDA ($)	$(4,132,469)*	$12,137,397*	+$16,269,866 (beat)

All consensus values retrieved from S&P Global. Actual EBITDA value retrieved from S&P Global.

Metric	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Research & Development ($)	$1,198,546	$1,616,011
General & Administrative ($)	$1,195,485	$1,406,796

Notes: Single reportable segment; no segment revenue breakdown disclosed .

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Cash Runway	Corporate	“into late Q4 FY2025” (Q2 10-Q)	“into Q1 FY2027” (Q3 10-Q)	Raised
Cash Runway (press)	Corporate	N/A	“into Q3 2026” (press release)	Clarified (press vs 10-Q)
AFFIRM‑1 Phase 3 SAD Topline	Q3 2025	Planning for Phase 3, timing TBD (Q2 MD&A)	Topline anticipated in Q3 2025 (press)	Specified timing
PTSD SYMPHONY Trial	Program	EoP2 prep noted (Q2 MD&A)	Planning underway; Phase 2b design to de-risk dosing (press)	Advanced planning
ATM Facility	Capital	$3.56M authorized (Q2)	Ongoing usage; ~$1.1M net proceeds by Q3 filing	Implemented

Transcript not available; themes reflect 8‑K press release and MD&A.

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 FY2025)	Current Period (Q3 FY2025)	Trend
BNC‑210 AFFIRM‑1 (SAD)	Phase 3 execution; timeline being finalized	Topline results anticipated Q3 2025; steady progress	Advancing; near-term catalyst
PTSD SYMPHONY	EoP2 preparation and design work	Planning underway; aim to identify lower dose to de-risk	Advancing planning
Merck MK‑1167	Expectation of milestone; Phase 2 initiation noted as upcoming	$15M milestone received; Phase 2 initiated (NCT06721156)	Positive milestone achieved
Liquidity/Runway	Runway into late Q4 FY2025; substantial doubt noted	Runway into Q1 FY2027; no substantial doubt	Improved outlook
Nasdaq Compliance/Listing	Regained minimum bid compliance Jan 2025	Ongoing risk disclosures maintained	Stable but monitored

“The first quarter of 2025 marked steady progress across our pipeline… AFFIRM‑1 Phase 3 study in Social Anxiety Disorder… topline data in Q3 this year. We’re also very pleased to see our partnered asset, MK‑1167, continue its momentum in the Merck‑led Phase 2 trial in Alzheimer’s disease.” — Spyros Papapetropoulos, President & CEO .
MD&A underscores improved going concern assessment and liquidity after milestone receipt and cash generation from operations in the nine months ended March 31, 2025 .

The company did not publish a Q3 FY2025 earnings call transcript in the document set; Q&A highlights are therefore unavailable (we reviewed the 8‑K and Q3 10‑Q in full and found no transcript) .

Coverage depth: Only one analyst contributed to Q3 EPS and revenue consensus, which can magnify the impact of milestone timing on surprises*.
Implications: With license/milestone recognition driving quarterly profitability, forward estimates may need to reflect increased volatility in partner-driven revenue recognition rather than recurring product sales .

All consensus values retrieved from S&P Global.

Q3 print was milestone-driven: $15M Merck milestone recognition delivered revenue, profitability, and an outsized EBITDA beat vs consensus; expect quarter-to-quarter variability as future milestones or timing change .
Near-term binary event: AFFIRM‑1 Phase 3 SAD topline in Q3 2025 is the principal catalyst for BNC‑210’s value path; management reiterated timing and confidence in the program .
Liquidity improved: Management now sees runway into Q1 FY2027 (10‑Q), surpassing the press release’s Q3 2026 indication; this reduces near-term financing risk but longer-term funding remains a strategic focus .
Partner leverage: MK‑1167’s Phase 2 progress and royalty/amendment terms with Merck highlight external validation; milestones and later royalties could be material, but timing remains exogenous .
Watch coverage/estimates: Single-analyst consensus and milestone-driven results raise surprise risk; traders should monitor SEC filings and company updates for event timing*.
Risk posture: Dilution/financing, listing compliance, and development execution remain core risks; risk factor disclosures unchanged in substance but liquidity stance improved .
Strategy: Execution on BNC‑210 (SAD/PTSD) and deepening Merck collaboration are the clearest pathways to sustainable value; the upcoming topline readout will shape medium-term thesis .

Citations:

Values retrieved from S&P Global: Marked with *.